The counting argument for scheming (Sections 4.1 and 4.2 of "Scheming AIs")

This is sections 4.1 and 4.2 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?” 

Text of the report here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08379
 
Summary of the report here: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/11/15/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power
 
Audio summary here: https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/13969977-introduction-and-summary-of-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power

Chapters

• 0:32 4. Arguments for/against scheming that focus on the final properties of the
• 1:08 4.1 Contributors to reward vs. extra criteria
• 3:42 4.2 The counting argument